MeritValue

Autolus Therapeutics plc

AUTLdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Autolus Therapeutics plc earns about -1361% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 269% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$1.7M1$10.1M2$75.4M2
Net income−$142.1M3−$148.8M3−$208.4M4−$220.7M5−$287.5M5
Operating cash flow−$117.9M6−$112.3M6−$145.6M7−$206.3M8−$283.6M8
Capital expenditure$8.86M9$10.8M9$11M10$22.1M11$19M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$126.7M6−$123.1M6−$156.6M7−$228.3M8−$302.6M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$310.3M12$382.4M12$239.6M13$227.4M14$104.1M14
Diluted shares72.1M95.0M173.9M255.2M266.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.8
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.37
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6.69 of net worth that earned you −$10.8 and generated −$11.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1361% avg · 5y
FY21 -3734%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -83%FY25 -266%

It earned an average -1361% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+269% shares · 5y

Share count is up 269% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001730463-25-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001730463-26-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001730463-24-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001730463-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001730463-26-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001730463-24-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001730463-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001730463-26-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001730463-24-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001730463-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001730463-26-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001730463-24-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001730463-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001730463-26-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)