MeritValue

Aurelion Inc.

AUREdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Aurelion Inc. earns about -24% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$2.79M1$2.09M2$348,5282$639,9122
Net income$1.91M3$1.35M4−$1.04M4−$6.88M4
Operating cash flow$1.3M5$1.16M6−$996,5816−$1.66M6
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$750,2217$66,7788$431,3079$13,1909
Diluted shares8.0M8.0M8.3M10.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.76
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.99 of net worth that earned you −$6.76 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-24% avg · 4y
FY21 58%FY22 26%FY23 -1%FY24 -180%

It earned an average -24% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 4y

Share count is up 27% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$159,393.5
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014546 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-013536 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014546 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-013536 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014546 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-013536 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-013536 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-014546 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-013536 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)