MeritValue

Aura Biosciences, Inc.

AURAdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Aura Biosciences, Inc. earns about -65% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1069% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$35.3M1−$58.8M2−$76.4M3−$86.9M4−$106.2M4
Operating cash flow−$32.4M5−$54.6M6−$63.8M7−$79.8M8−$84.7M8
Capital expenditure$2.13M9$1.09M10$709,00011$1.25M12$447,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$34.5M5−$55.7M6−$64.6M7−$81.1M8−$85.2M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$149.1M13$121.6M14$41.1M15$31.7M16$59.5M16
Diluted shares5.2M29.9M39.6M49.7M60.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.6
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $22.69 of net worth that earned you −$17.6 and generated −$14.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-65% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -63%FY23 -33%FY24 -57%FY25 -108%

It earned an average -65% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1069% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1069% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008166 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036814 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043943 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130401 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008166 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036814 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043943 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130401 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008166 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036814 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043943 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130401 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008166 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036814 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043943 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-130401 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)