MeritValue

Aurora Innovation, Inc.

AURdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Aurora Innovation, Inc. earns about -47% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 196% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$82M1$68M1$02$02$3M2
Net income−$755M3−$1.72B4−$796M5−$748M5−$816M5
Operating cash flow−$564M6−$508M7−$598M8−$611M8−$581M8
Capital expenditure$48M9$15M10$15M11$34M11$31M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$612M6−$523M7−$613M8−$645M8−$612M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.61B12$262M13$501M14$211M15$221M15
Diluted shares621.0M1.14B1.33B1.62B1.84B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.44
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.64 of net worth that earned you −$4.44 and generated −$3.33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-47% avg · 5y
FY21 -35%FY22 -89%FY23 -42%FY24 -36%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -47% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+196% shares · 5y

Share count is up 196% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828108-23-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828108-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828108-24-000112 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828108-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828108-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828108-24-000112 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828108-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828108-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828108-24-000112 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828108-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828108-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828108-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828108-24-000112 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828108-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828108-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)