MeritValue

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.

AUPHdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. earns about -16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$45.6M1$134M2$175.5M3$235.1M3$283.1M3
Net income−$181M4−$108.2M5−$78M6$5.75M6$287.2M6
Operating cash flow−$157.7M7−$79.5M8−$33.5M9$44.4M9$135.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$231.6M10$94.1M11$48.8M12$83.4M12$80.2M12
Diluted shares129.4M141.9M143.2M146.2M138.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$41.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.71
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $41.91 of net worth that earned you $20.71 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-16% avg · 5y
FY21 -58%FY22 -27%FY23 -18%FY24 2%FY25 23%

It earned an average -16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$13.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001600620-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001600620-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001600620-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001600620-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001600620-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001600620-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001600620-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001600620-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001600620-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001600620-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001600620-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001600620-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)