MeritValue

AUBURN NATIONAL BANCORPORATION, INC

AUBNdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AUBURN NATIONAL BANCORPORATION, INC earns about 8% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.51 and $227.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$566,0001$598,0002$603,0003$614,0004$619,0004
Net income$8.04M5$10.3M6$1.4M7$6.4M8$7.26M8
Operating cash flow$12.3M9$11M10$11.9M11$10.8M12$12.3M12
Capital expenditure$20.2M13$7.05M14$418,00015$2.09M16$1.49M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.86M9$3.93M10$11.5M11$8.72M12$10.9M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$156.3M17$27.3M18$71.4M19$93.4M19$147.8M19
Diluted shares3.5M3.5M3.5M3.5M3.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$263.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $263.38 of net worth that earned you $20.76 and generated $31.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 15%FY23 2%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 8% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.51 and $227.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$227.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$10.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$143.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$10.9M
Earnings Power Value
$21.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.26M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $143.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$86.71
Base20.0%$143.64
Bull20.0%$143.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-074092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-067944 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-051574 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-111012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-074092 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-067944 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-051574 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-111012 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-074092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-067944 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-051574 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-111012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-074092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-067944 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-051574 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-111012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-067944 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-051574 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-111012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)