MeritValue

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp

AUBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp earns about 16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 67% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$592.4M1$660.4M2$954.5M3$1.23B3$1.82B3
Net income$263.9M4$234.5M5$201.8M6$209.1M6$273.7M6
Operating cash flow$337.8M7$419.7M8$278M9$308.5M9$2.24B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$506.6M10$1.71B11$1.31B12$534.6M13$1.5B13
Cash & equivalents$802.5M14$319.9M15$378.1M16$354.1M17$966.5M17
Diluted shares77.4M75.0M75.0M87.9M129.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$387.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.19
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$115.92

10 shares is a claim on $387.61 of net worth that earned you $21.19 last year, against $115.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 8%FY23 14%FY24 23%FY25 22%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+67% shares · 5y

Share count is up 67% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 196% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$18.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$234.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883948-24-000030 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883948-25-000021 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883948-26-000021 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883948-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883948-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883948-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883948-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883948-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883948-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883948-23-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883948-24-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883948-25-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000883948-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000883948-23-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883948-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000883948-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000883948-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)