MeritValue

AngloGold Ashanti PLC

AUdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

AngloGold Ashanti PLC earns about 17% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.03B1$4.5B2$4.58B3$5.79B3$9.89B3
Net income$638M4$251M5−$222M6$1.05B6$3.17B6
Operating cash flow$1.27B7$1.8B8$971M9$1.97B9$4.78B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.91B10$1.98B11$2.24B11$1.98B11$2.04B11
Cash & equivalents$1.15B12$1.11B13$964M14$1.43B14$2.91B14
Diluted shares419.8M420.2M419.7M503.5M505.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$160.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.85
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.47

10 shares is a claim on $160.22 of net worth that earned you $62.85 last year, against $40.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 6%FY23 2%FY24 16%FY25 45%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$13.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$638M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-017820 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017760 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001973832-26-000066 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-017820 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017760 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001973832-26-000066 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-017820 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017760 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001973832-26-000066 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017760 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001973832-26-000066 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-017820 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017760 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001973832-26-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalents)