MeritValue

ASTRONICS CORP

ATROdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

ASTRONICS CORP earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.1 and $3.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$444.9M1$534.9M2$689.2M3$795.4M3$862.1M3
Net income−$25.6M4−$35.7M5−$26.4M6−$16.2M6$29.4M6
Operating cash flow−$5.53M7−$28.3M8−$24M9$30.6M9$74.8M9
Capital expenditure$6.03M10$7.68M11$7.64M12$8.43M12$31.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$11.6M7−$36M8−$31.6M9$22.1M9$43.1M9
Total debt$163M13$164M14$168.2M15$168.7M16$334.5M16
Cash & equivalents$29.8M17$13.8M18$4.76M19$9.29M20$18.2M20
Diluted shares31.1M32.2M33.1M35.0M36.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$91.72

10 shares is a claim on $38.41 of net worth that earned you $8.05 and generated $11.83 of cash last year, against $91.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -8%FY23 -9%FY24 -1%FY25 6%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 105% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.1 and $3.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$22.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$22.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0
Base5.0%$2.1
Bull10.0%$4.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000008063-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008063-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000008063-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000008063-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008063-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000008063-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000008063-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008063-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000008063-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000008063-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008063-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000008063-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000008063-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008063-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000008063-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000008063-26-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000008063-25-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000008063-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000008063-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000008063-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)