MeritValue

AtriCure, Inc.

ATRCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AtriCure, Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.48 and $2.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$274.3M1$330.4M2$399.2M3$465.3M3$534.5M3
Net income$50.2M4−$46.5M5−$30.4M6−$44.7M6−$11.4M6
Operating cash flow−$13.8M7−$22.1M8$4.48M9$12.2M9$57.3M9
Capital expenditure$9.75M10$16.9M11$12M12$11.5M12$9.05M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.5M7−$39M8−$7.51M9$745,0009$48.3M9
Total debt$119.7M13$116.8M14$60.6M15$61.9M16$61.9M16
Cash & equivalents$43.7M17$58.1M18$84.3M19$122.7M20$167.4M20
Diluted shares46.0M45.7M46.3M47.0M47.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$103.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$12.96

10 shares is a claim on $103.02 of net worth that earned you −$2.4 and generated $10.11 of cash last year, against $12.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 -6%FY23 -4%FY24 -9%FY25 -2%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 48% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.48 and $2.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$745,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$745,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.43
Base5.0%$2.48
Bull10.0%$2.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001323885-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001323885-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001323885-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001323885-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001323885-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001323885-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001323885-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001323885-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001323885-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001323885-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001323885-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001323885-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001323885-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001323885-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001323885-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001323885-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001323885-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001323885-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001323885-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001323885-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)