APTARGROUP, INC.

ATRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

APTARGROUP, INC. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.18 and $271.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.23B1$3.32B2$3.49B3$3.58B3$3.78B3
Net income$244.1M4$239.3M5$284.5M6$374.5M6$392.8M6
Operating cash flow$363.4M7$478.6M8$575.2M9$643.4M9$570M9
Capital expenditure$307.9M10$310.4M11$312.3M12$276.5M12$270.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$55.5M7$168.2M8$262.9M9$366.9M9$299.6M9
Total debt$147.3M13$3.81M14$81.8M15$176M16$183.9M16
Cash & equivalents$122.9M17$141.7M18$223.6M19$223.8M19$402.4M19
Diluted shares67.7M66.7M66.9M67.7M66.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$399.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.57

10 shares is a claim on $399.86 of net worth that earned you $58.87 and generated $44.9 of cash last year, against $27.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 14%FY23 15%FY24 15%FY25 16%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 25% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.18 and $271.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$271.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$299.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$149.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$299.6M
Earnings Power Value
$44.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$284.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$72.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $149.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$67.42
Base20.0%$149.66
Bull20.0%$149.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896622-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896622-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896622-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896622-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896622-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896622-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896622-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896622-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896622-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896622-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896622-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896622-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896622-23-000008 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896622-24-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896622-25-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000896622-26-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000896622-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000896622-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000896622-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)