MeritValue

ATOSSA THERAPEUTICS, INC.

ATOSdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ATOSSA THERAPEUTICS, INC. earns about -1821% on invested capital, and has bought back 93% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$20.6M1−$27M2−$30.1M3−$25.5M4−$34.8M4
Operating cash flow−$16.5M5−$20.8M6−$20.9M7−$21M8−$29.8M8
Capital expenditure$9,0009$27,00010$14,00011$19,00012$23,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$16.5M5−$20.8M6−$21M7−$21M8−$29.8M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$136.4M13$110.9M14$88.5M15$71.1M16$41.3M16
Diluted shares117.0M126.6M126.1M8.4M8.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$45.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$40.38
Free cash flow it threw off
−$34.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $45.7 of net worth that earned you −$40.38 and generated −$34.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1821% avg · 5y
FY21 -925%FY22 -301%FY23 -930%FY24 -5127%FY25 —

It earned an average -1821% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−93% shares · 5y

Share count is down 93% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007531 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039306 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124396 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007531 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039306 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124396 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007531 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039306 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124396 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007531 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039306 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-124396 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)