MeritValue

Atomera Inc

ATOMdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Atomera Inc earns about -87% on equity, but has diluted owners by 37% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$400,0001$382,0002$550,0003$135,0004$65,0004
Net income−$15.7M5−$17.4M6−$19.8M7−$18.4M8−$20.2M8
Operating cash flow−$12.4M9−$12.5M10−$14.6M11−$13.2M12−$14.9M12
Capital expenditure$109,00013$39,00014$31,00015$14,00016$49,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$12.6M9,13−$12.5M10,14−$14.6M11,15−$13.3M12,16−$14.9M12,16
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$28.7M17$21.2M18$12.6M19$25.8M20$19.2M20
Diluted shares22.5M23.2M24.8M27.2M30.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.54
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.84
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $5.96 of net worth that earned you −$6.54 and generated −$4.84 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-87% avg · 5y
FY21 -55%FY22 -86%FY23 -109%FY24 -74%FY25 -110%

It earned an average -87% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+37% shares · 5y

Share count is up 37% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2023-02-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-000938 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2024-02-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2025-03-04 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001330 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001291 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K filed 2023-02-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-000938 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2024-02-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2025-03-04 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001330 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001291 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K filed 2023-02-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-000938 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-02-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-03-04 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001330 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001291 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K filed 2023-02-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-000938 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K filed 2024-02-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K filed 2025-03-04 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001330 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001291 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K filed 2023-02-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-000938 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K filed 2024-02-15 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K filed 2025-03-04 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001330 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001291 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)