MeritValue

ATMOS ENERGY CORP

ATOdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ATMOS ENERGY CORP earns about 9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $57.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.41B1$4.2B2$4.28B3$4.17B3$4.7B3
Net income$665.6M4$774.4M5$885.9M6$1.04B6$1.2B6
Operating cash flow−$1.08B7$977.6M8$3.46B9$1.73B9$2.05B9
Capital expenditure$1.97B10$2.44B11$2.81B12$2.94B12$3.56B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.05B7−$1.47B8$653.8M9−$1.2B9−$1.51B9
Total debt$013$185M14$241.9M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$116.7M16$51.6M17$15.4M18$307.3M19$202.7M19
Diluted shares129.8M138.1M145.2M152.7M160.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$844.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$74.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$94.16
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $844.41 of net worth that earned you $74.65 and generated −$94.16 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 9%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$57.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$885.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$119.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000731802-23-000028 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000731802-24-000030 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000731802-25-000056 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000731802-23-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000731802-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000731802-25-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000731802-23-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000731802-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000731802-25-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000731802-23-000028 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000731802-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000731802-25-000056 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000731802-22-000037 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000731802-23-000028 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000731802-24-000030 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000731802-22-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000731802-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000731802-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000731802-25-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)