MeritValue

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.

ATMUdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.65 and $21.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.44B1$1.56B2$1.63B3$1.67B3$1.76B3
Net income$170.1M4$170.4M5$171.3M6$185.6M6$207.4M6
Operating cash flow$209.9M7$165.7M8$189M9$105.4M9$202.7M9
Capital expenditure$33.4M10$37.5M11$45.8M12$48.6M12$53.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$176.5M7$128.2M8$143.2M9$56.8M9$148.8M9
Total debt—$013$1.2B14$1.19B15$1.14B15
Cash & equivalents$016$017$168M18$184.3M19$236.4M19
Diluted shares83.3M83.3M83.4M83.6M82.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$45.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$137.68

10 shares is a claim on $45.71 of net worth that earned you $25.05 and generated $17.97 of cash last year, against $137.68 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 40%FY22 38%FY23 17%FY24 15%FY25 16%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.65 and $21.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$143.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$143.2M
Earnings Power Value
$21.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$171.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.47
Base0.0%$13.47
Bull5.0%$19.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001921963-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001921963-25-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001921963-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001921963-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001921963-25-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001921963-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001921963-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001921963-25-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001921963-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001921963-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001921963-25-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001921963-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001921963-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001921963-25-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001921963-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001921963-25-000029 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001921963-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001921963-25-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001921963-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)