MeritValue

Atkore Inc.

ATKRdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Atkore Inc. earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $123.17 and $177.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.93B1$3.91B2$3.52B3$3.2B3$2.85B3
Net income$587.9M4$913.4M5$689.9M6$472.9M6−$15.2M6
Operating cash flow$572.9M7$786.8M8$807.6M9$549M9$402.8M9
Capital expenditure$64.5M10$135.8M11$218.9M12$149.9M12$107.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$508.4M7$651.1M8$588.7M9$399.2M9$295.7M9
Total debt$758.4M13$760.5M14$1.54B15$1.53B16$1.52B16
Cash & equivalents$576.3M17$388.8M18$388.1M19$351.4M20$506.7M20
Diluted shares47.3M44.3M39.3M36.8M34.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$410.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$86.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$446.91

10 shares is a claim on $410.85 of net worth that earned you −$4.46 and generated $86.87 of cash last year, against $446.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 56%FY22 56%FY23 26%FY24 17%FY25 -1%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−28% shares · 5y

Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 101% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $123.17 and $177.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$123.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$399.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$135.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$399.2M
Earnings Power Value
$177.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$587.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $135.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$135.55
Base0.0%$135.55
Bull5.0%$175.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001666138-23-000111 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001666138-24-000164 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001666138-23-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001666138-24-000164 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001666138-23-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001666138-24-000164 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001666138-23-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001666138-24-000164 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001666138-22-000128 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001666138-23-000111 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001666138-24-000164 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001666138-22-000128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001666138-23-000111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001666138-24-000164 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)