MeritValue

ATI INC

ATIdata completeness 100%21 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ATI INC earns about 53% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.88 and $73.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.84B1$3.84B2$4.17B3$4.36B3$4.59B3
Net income$130.9M4$323.5M5$410.8M6$367.8M6$404.3M6
Operating cash flow$224.9M7$224.9M8$85.9M9$407.2M9$614.3M9
Capital expenditure$130.9M10$130.9M11$200.7M12$239.1M12$280.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$94M7$94M8−$114.8M9$168.1M9$333.7M9
Total debt$41.7M13$41.7M14$31.9M15$180.4M16$31.1M16
Cash & equivalents$584M17$584M18$743.9M19$721.2M20$416.7M20
Diluted shares151.2M151.2M150.0M146.6M141.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.19

10 shares is a claim on $127.26 of net worth that earned you $28.51 and generated $23.53 of cash last year, against $2.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
53% avg · 5y
FY22 46%FY23 85%FY23 61%FY24 37%FY25 36%

It earned about 53% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.88 and $73.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$73.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$168.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$168.1M
Earnings Power Value
$26.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$367.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.66
Base20.0%$41.37
Bull20.0%$41.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001628280-25-007092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010140 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001628280-25-007092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010140 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001628280-25-007092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010140 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001628280-25-007092 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010140 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005017 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001628280-24-006606 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007092 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-010140 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001628280-24-006606 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-010140 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)