MeritValue

Alpha Technology Group Ltd

ATGLdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Alpha Technology Group Ltd earns about -33% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1305% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.11M1$1.59M2$950,5413
Net income−$872,3214−$706,3395−$9.05M6
Operating cash flow$548,7187−$2.52M8−$1.69M9
Capital expenditure$6,18510$4,41411$100,90812
Free cash flow (derived)$542,5337−$2.53M8−$1.79M9
Total debt$304,55013$231,71014$39,15415
Cash & equivalents$467,14016$5.37M17$3.97M17
Diluted shares1.2M14.9M16.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.51
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.02

10 shares is a claim on $1.92 of net worth that earned you −$5.51 and generated −$1.09 of cash last year, against $0.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-33% avg · 3y
FY23 -28%FY24 -37%FY25 —

It earned an average -33% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1305% shares · 3y

Share count is up 1305% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 87% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008526 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-010168 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008526 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-010168 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008526 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-010168 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008526 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-010168 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-24-008526 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-036152 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-010168 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001213900-25-007015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001213900-26-010168 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)