MeritValue

Aterian, Inc.

ATERdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Aterian, Inc. earns about -184% on invested capital, and has bought back 78% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$247.8M1$221.2M2$142.6M3$99M4$69M4
Net income−$236M5−$196.3M6−$74.6M7−$11.9M8−$19M8
Operating cash flow−$42M9−$17.5M10−$13.4M11$2.17M12−$10.9M12
Capital expenditure$32,00013$82,00014$119,00015$42,00016$51,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$42M9−$17.6M10−$13.5M11$2.12M12−$10.9M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$30.3M17$43.6M18$20M19$18M20$4.86M20
Diluted shares35.4M66.5M6.5M7.1M7.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23.93
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $19.17 of net worth that earned you −$23.93 and generated −$13.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-184% avg · 5y
FY21 -91%FY22 -262%FY23 -362%FY24 -70%FY25 -137%

It earned an average -184% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−78% shares · 5y

Share count is down 78% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008509 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008398 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009139 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009285 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008509 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008398 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009139 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009285 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008509 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008398 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009285 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-010668 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008398 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009139 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009285 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008509 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008398 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009285 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)