Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd
ATATdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd earns about 33% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.41 and $37.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $328.1M1 | $657.2M2 | $993M3 | $1.4B4 |
| Net income | $14.2M5 | $103.8M6 | $174.7M7 | $231.8M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $41.1M9 | $280.1M10 | $236.5M11 | $285M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.28M13 | $5.88M14 | $7.71M15 | $12.3M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $35.8M9 | $274.2M10 | $228.7M11 | $272.7M12 |
| Total debt | $25.2M17 | $10.1M18 | $8.49M19 | $36M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $230.4M21 | $400.1M22 | $495.7M23 | $472.5M24 |
| Diluted shares | 381.6M | 414.8M | 417.2M | 419.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $12.26 of net worth that earned you $5.53 and generated $6.5 of cash last year, against $0.86 of debt.
It earned about 33% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 10% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 43% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.41 and $37.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth19.2%
- fcfBase$272.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth19.2%
- fcfBase$272.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$139.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $10.21 |
| Base | 19.2% | $21.32 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $21.94 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 19.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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