MeritValue

AMTECH SYSTEMS INC

ASYSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AMTECH SYSTEMS INC earns about -9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.31 and $7.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$85.2M1$106.3M2$113.3M2$101.2M3$79.4M3
Net income$1.51M4$17.4M5−$12.6M5−$8.49M6−$30.3M6
Operating cash flow−$5.96M7$5.2M8−$7.7M8$9.84M9$7.88M9
Capital expenditure$3.01M10$1.14M11$2.9M11$4.88M12$950,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.97M7$4.07M8−$10.6M8$4.96M9$6.93M9
Total debt$9.6M13$180,00014$10.7M15$290,00016$294,00017
Cash & equivalents$32.8M18$46.9M19$13.1M20$11.1M21$17.9M21
Diluted shares14.3M14.2M14.1M14.2M14.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$37.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.21

10 shares is a claim on $37.33 of net worth that earned you −$21.2 and generated $4.84 of cash last year, against $0.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 34%FY23 -13%FY24 -8%FY25 -62%

It earned about -9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 97% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.31 and $7.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.96M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.96M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.12
Base5.0%$7.31
Bull10.0%$8.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-070422 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135825 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-314147 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-070422 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135825 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-314147 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-070422 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135825 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-314147 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-070422 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135825 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-314147 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-21-004729 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025872 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-070422 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135825 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-314147 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025872 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-070422 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-135825 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-314147 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)