MeritValue

ASURE SOFTWARE INC

ASURdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASURE SOFTWARE INC earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 41% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.57 and $33.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$76.1M1$95.8M2$119.1M2——
Net income$3.19M3−$14.5M4−$9.21M5−$11.8M6−$13.1M6
Operating cash flow$1.38M7$13.7M8$18.9M9$9.39M10$22.2M10
Capital expenditure$133,00011$2.32M12$1.59M13$692,00014$787,00014
Free cash flow (derived)$1.25M7$11.4M8$17.3M9$8.7M10$21.4M10
Total debt$70.1M15$69.8M16$8.62M17$25.4M18$135.3M18
Cash & equivalents$13.4M19$17M20$30.3M21$21.4M22$25.2M22
Diluted shares19.5M20.1M22.1M26.1M27.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$72.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$49.31

10 shares is a claim on $72.11 of net worth that earned you −$4.79 and generated $7.81 of cash last year, against $49.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -8%FY23 -6%FY24 -4%FY25 -3%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+41% shares · 5y

Share count is up 41% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 93% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.57 and $33.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$17.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$17.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.01
Base20.0%$16.57
Bull20.0%$16.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884144-23-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884144-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884144-23-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884144-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884144-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012270 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884144-23-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884144-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884144-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012270 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884144-23-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884144-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884144-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012270 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884144-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884144-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884144-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012270 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884144-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884144-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884144-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012270 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)