MeritValue

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

ASTSdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. earns about -93% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 213% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.4M1$13.8M2$03$13.8M4$70.9M3
Net income−$30.6M5−$31.6M6−$87.6M7−$300.1M7−$341.9M7
Operating cash flow−$80.1M8−$156.5M9−$148.9M10−$126.1M10−$71.5M10
Capital expenditure$15.1M11$57.3M12$118.8M13$174.1M13$1.06B13
Free cash flow (derived)−$95.2M8−$213.7M9−$267.7M10−$300.3M10−$1.14B10
Total debt$10M14$9.76M15$59.5M16$158.5M17$2.22B17
Cash & equivalents$321.8M18$238.6M19$85.6M20$565M21$2.34B21
Diluted shares——81.8M154.5M256.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$93.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.36
Free cash flow it threw off
−$44.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$86.71

10 shares is a claim on $93.46 of net worth that earned you −$13.36 and generated −$44.39 of cash last year, against $86.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-93% avg · 5y
FY21 -143%FY22 -62%FY23 -91%FY24 -152%FY25 -15%

It earned an average -93% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+213% shares · 5y

Share count is up 213% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 22096% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011124 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039342 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001780312-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030909 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011124 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030909 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001780312-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011124 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030909 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001780312-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011124 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030909 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001780312-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011124 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039342 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030909 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001780312-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011124 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039342 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030909 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001780312-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)