MeritValue

ASPEN AEROGELS INC

ASPNdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASPEN AEROGELS INC earns about -55% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 171% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$121.6M1$180.4M2$238.7M3$452.7M3$271.1M3
Net income−$37.1M4−$82.7M5−$45.8M6$13.4M6−$389.6M6
Operating cash flow−$18.6M7−$94.4M8−$42.6M9$45.5M9$32.9M9
Capital expenditure$13.8M10$178M11$175.5M12$86.3M12$37.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$32.4M7−$272.4M8−$218.1M9−$40.7M9−$4.58M9
Total debt———$134.5M13$90.6M13
Cash & equivalents$76.6M14$281.3M15$139.7M16$220.9M17$156.9M17
Diluted shares30.4M39.4M69.4M80.3M82.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$47.32
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$11

10 shares is a claim on $28.61 of net worth that earned you −$47.32 and generated −$0.56 of cash last year, against $11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-55% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -39%FY23 -8%FY24 3%FY25 -177%

It earned an average -55% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+171% shares · 5y

Share count is up 171% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 33% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028127 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029252 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119892 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028127 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029252 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119892 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028127 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029252 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119892 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028127 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029252 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119892 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119892 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008476 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029252 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119892 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)