MeritValue

ASP Isotopes Inc.

ASPIdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASP Isotopes Inc. earns about -102% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 210% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$433,0262$4.14M3$23.8M3
Net income−$4.95M4−$16.3M5−$32.4M6−$159.8M6
Operating cash flow−$2.94M7−$5.41M8−$16.7M9−$37.8M9
Capital expenditure$4.47M10$2.33M11$9.68M12$9.65M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.41M7−$7.74M8−$26.4M9−$47.4M9
Total debt——$4.76M13$28.7M13
Cash & equivalents$2.39M14$7.91M15$61.9M16$285.6M17
Diluted shares26.8M33.1M55.7M83.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.26
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.46

10 shares is a claim on $24.59 of net worth that earned you −$19.26 and generated −$5.71 of cash last year, against $3.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-102% avg · 4y
FY22 -53%FY23 -152%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -102% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+210% shares · 4y

Share count is up 210% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 503% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001964 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047694 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151294 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001964 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047694 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151294 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001964 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047694 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047694 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151294 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151294 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047694 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151294 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047694 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151294 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)