Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.
ASOdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.63 and $78.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.77B1 | $6.4B2 | $6.16B3 | $5.93B3 | $6.05B3 |
| Net income | $671.4M4 | $628M5 | $519.2M6 | $418.4M6 | $376.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $673.3M7 | $552M8 | $535.8M9 | $528.1M9 | $434.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $75.8M10 | $108.3M11 | $207.8M12 | $199.6M12 | $212.7M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $597.5M7 | $443.7M8 | $328M9 | $328.5M9 | $222.1M9 |
| Total debt | $686.6M13 | $587.5M14 | $487.6M15 | $485.7M16 | $483.8M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $486M17 | $337.1M18 | $347.9M19 | $288.9M20 | $330.3M20 |
| Diluted shares | 94.3M | 83.9M | 77.5M | 73.0M | 68.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $319.16 of net worth that earned you $55.38 and generated $32.65 of cash last year, against $71.11 of debt.
It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 30% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.63 and $78.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$328M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$328M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$519.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $65.72 |
| Base | 0.0% | $65.72 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $82.15 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001817358-24-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001817358-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001817358-26-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001817358-24-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001817358-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001817358-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001817358-24-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001817358-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001817358-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001817358-24-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001817358-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001817358-26-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001817358-23-000062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001817358-24-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001817358-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001817358-26-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001817358-23-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001817358-24-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001817358-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001817358-26-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)