MeritValue

Ascendis Pharma A/S

ASNDdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ascendis Pharma A/S earns about -1372% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€7.78M1€51.2M2€266.7M3€363.6M3€720.1M3
Net income−€383.6M4−€583.2M5−€481.4M6−€378.1M6−€228M6
Operating cash flow−€417.6M7−€495.7M8−€467.4M9−€306.2M9€53.9M9
Capital expenditure€23.7M10€14.5M10€2.44M10——
Free cash flow (derived)−€441.4M7−€510.2M8−€469.8M9——
Total debt€105M11€399.2M12€545.5M13€763.6M14€720.3M14
Cash & equivalents€446.3M15€444.8M16€392.2M16€559.5M16€616M16
Diluted shares56.9M57.2M57.7M60.7M62.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−€26.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−€36.79
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
€116.21

10 shares is a claim on −€26.27 of net worth that earned you −€36.79 last year, against €116.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1372% avg · 5y
FY21 -56%FY22 -210%FY23 -4921%FY24 -300%FY25 —

It earned an average -1372% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 586% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012212 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018852 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046590 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012212 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018852 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046590 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012212 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018852 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046590 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012212 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003068 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012212 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018852 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046590 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-018852 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046590 (CashAndCashEquivalents)