MeritValue

ASML HOLDING NV

ASMLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

ASML HOLDING NV earns about 79% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between €199.89 and €582.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€18.6B1€21.2B2€27.6B3€28.3B3€32.7B3
Net income€5.88B4€5.62B5€7.84B6€7.57B6€9.61B6
Operating cash flow€10.8B7€8.49B8€5.44B9€11.2B9€12.7B9
Capital expenditure€900.7M10€1.28B11€2.16B12€2.07B12€1.57B12
Free cash flow (derived)€9.95B7€7.21B8€3.29B9€9.1B9€11.1B9
Total debt€4.58B13€4.26B14€4.63B15€4.69B16€4.39B16
Cash & equivalents€6.95B17€7.27B18€7B19€12.7B20€12.9B20
Diluted shares410.4M398.0M394.1M393.6M388.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€504.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€247.09
Free cash flow it threw off
€285.03
Debt you’d be carrying
€112.91

10 shares is a claim on €504.3 of net worth that earned you €247.09 and generated €285.03 of cash last year, against €112.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
79% avg · 5y
FY21 74%FY22 95%FY23 70%FY24 71%FY25 85%

It earned about 79% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €199.89 and €582.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€582.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase€9.1B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€488.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase€9.1B
Earnings Power Value
€199.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€7.57B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€168.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €488.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%€351.79
Base8.1%€488.46
Bull13.1%€594.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000937966-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000937966-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011378 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000937966-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000937966-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011378 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000937966-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000937966-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011378 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000937966-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000937966-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011378 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000937966-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000937966-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000937966-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011378 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000937966-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000937966-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000937966-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011378 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)