MeritValue

ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC.

ASMBdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC. earns about -140% on invested capital, and has bought back 74% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.25M1$02$7.16M3$28.5M4$72.3M4
Net income−$129.9M5−$93.1M6−$61.2M7−$40.2M8−$6.12M8
Operating cash flow−$93.4M9−$84.5M10$22.7M11−$51.1M12−$41.1M12
Capital expenditure$3.1M13$102,00014$255,00015$28,00016$66,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$96.5M9−$84.6M10$22.5M11−$51.1M12−$41.2M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$45.6M17$52.4M18$19.8M19$38.3M20$58.5M20
Diluted shares43.3M4.0M4.6M6.0M11.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$184.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.46
Free cash flow it threw off
−$36.71
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $184.42 of net worth that earned you −$5.46 and generated −$36.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-140% avg · 5y
FY21 -85%FY22 -243%FY23 -227%FY24 —FY25 -3%

It earned an average -140% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−74% shares · 5y

Share count is down 74% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009184 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042673 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115992 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009184 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042673 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115992 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009184 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042673 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115992 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009184 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042673 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115992 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009184 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042673 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115992 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)