MeritValue

AVINO SILVER & GOLD MINES LTD

ASMdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AVINO SILVER & GOLD MINES LTD earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 57% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.04 and $0.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$16M1$11.2M2$44.2M3$43.9M4$66.2M4
Net income−$7.65M5−$2.06M6$3.1M7$542,0008$8.1M8
Operating cash flow$72,0009$109,00010$11.8M11$1.49M12$23.1M12
Capital expenditure—$013−$330,00014−$414,00014—
Free cash flow (derived)—$109,00010$12.2M11$1.9M12—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$11.7M15$24.8M16$11.2M17$2.69M18$27.3M18
Diluted shares89.6M102.2M118.3M128.7M140.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.58
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.92 of net worth that earned you $0.58 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY20 -15%FY21 -2%FY22 9%FY23 -0%FY24 12%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+57% shares · 5y

Share count is up 57% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.04 and $0.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.9M
Earnings Power Value
$0.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$542,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.39
Base5.0%$0.43
Bull10.0%$0.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001477932-22-001757 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-23-002160 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001577 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001620 (Revenue)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001477932-22-001757 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-23-002160 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001577 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001620 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001477932-21-001525 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-23-002160 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001577 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001620 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-23-002160 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001577 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001477932-22-001757 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-23-002160 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-001577 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-001620 (CashAndCashEquivalents)