MeritValue

AerSale Corp

ASLEdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AerSale Corp earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$340.4M1$408.5M2$334.5M3$345.1M3$335.3M3
Net income$36.1M4$43.9M5−$5.56M6$5.85M6$8.58M6
Operating cash flow$79.1M7−$113,0008−$174.2M9$11.2M9−$23M9
Capital expenditure$1.51M10$8.46M11$11.4M12$14.1M12$6.08M12
Free cash flow (derived)$77.6M7−$8.58M8−$185.5M9−$2.87M9−$29.1M9
Total debt$013$013$44.8M14$42.3M15$113.6M15
Cash & equivalents$130.2M16$147.2M17$5.87M18$4.7M19$4.38M19
Diluted shares47.3M53.1M51.5M53.4M48.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$87.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$23.3

10 shares is a claim on $87.05 of net worth that earned you $1.76 and generated −$5.96 of cash last year, against $23.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 15%FY23 -1%FY24 2%FY25 3%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.58M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002777 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002624 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025574 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002777 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002624 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025574 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002777 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002624 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025574 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002777 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002624 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025574 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002624 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025574 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002777 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002624 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025574 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)