MeritValue

AdvanSix Inc.

ASIXdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AdvanSix Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.83 and $20.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.68B1$1.95B2$1.53B3$1.52B3$1.52B3
Net income$139.8M4$171.9M5$54.6M6$44.1M6$49.3M6
Operating cash flow$218.8M7$273.6M8$117.6M9$135.4M9$122.9M9
Capital expenditure$56.8M10$89.4M11$107.4M12$133.7M12$116.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$162M7$184.2M8$10.2M9$1.69M9$6.42M9
Total debt$135M13$115M14———
Cash & equivalents$15.1M15$31M16$29.8M17$19.6M18$19.8M18
Diluted shares29.0M29.0M28.0M27.3M27.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$298.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.35
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $298.31 of net worth that earned you $18.04 and generated $2.35 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 21%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.83 and $20.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.42M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$6.42M
Earnings Power Value
$20.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$54.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.08
Base0.0%$4.08
Bull5.0%$4.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001673985-22-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001673985-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001673985-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001673985-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001673985-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001673985-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001673985-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001673985-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001673985-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001673985-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001673985-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001673985-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001673985-22-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001673985-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001673985-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001673985-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001673985-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001673985-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)