MeritValue

ASHLAND INC.

ASHdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASHLAND INC. earns about 0% on invested capital, and has bought back 25% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.45 and $37.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.11B1$2.39B2$2.19B3$2.11B3$1.82B3
Net income$220M4$927M5$178M6$169M6−$845M6
Operating cash flow$466M7$193M8$294M9$462M9$134M9
Capital expenditure$105M10$113M11$170M12$137M12$98M12
Free cash flow (derived)$361M7$80M8$124M9$325M9$36M9
Total debt$1.97B13$2.54B14$2.64B15$2.7B16$2.77B16
Cash & equivalents$210M17$646M18$417M19$300M20$215M20
Diluted shares61.0M56.0M54.0M50.0M46.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$413.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$183.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$601.74

10 shares is a claim on $413.91 of net worth that earned you −$183.7 and generated $7.83 of cash last year, against $601.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 0%FY25 -13%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−25% shares · 5y

Share count is down 25% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 41% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.45 and $37.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.3%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.7%
  • fcfBase$124M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.3%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.7%
  • fcfBase$124M
Earnings Power Value
$37.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate5.3%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$178M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064715 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-128009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289248 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064715 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-128009 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289248 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064715 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-128009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289248 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064715 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-128009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289248 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025539 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064715 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-128009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289248 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-064715 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-128009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-289248 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)