MeritValue

Ardmore Shipping Corp

ASCdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ardmore Shipping Corp earns about 15% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $29.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$192.5M1$445.7M2$396M3$405.8M3$310.2M3
Net income−$36.8M4$138.5M5$116.8M6$133M6$41M6
Operating cash flow−$2.89M7$124.2M8$159.6M9$160.4M9$81.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$145.1M10$128.8M11$46M12$77.6M13$254M13
Cash & equivalents$55.4M14$50.6M15$46.8M15$47M15$46.8M15
Diluted shares33.9M38.4M41.8M42.0M40.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$155.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.05
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$62.24

10 shares is a claim on $155.43 of net worth that earned you $10.05 last year, against $62.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 28%FY23 24%FY24 23%FY25 6%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 75% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$29.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$116.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003409 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002500 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024690 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003409 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002500 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024690 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003409 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002500 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024690 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004566 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003409 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002500 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024690 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002500 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024690 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)