MeritValue

ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP

ASBdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP earns about 17% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.06B1$1.24B1$1.1B1$2.12B2$2.17B2
Net income$351M3$366.1M4$183M5$123.1M5$474.8M5
Operating cash flow$529.6M6$846.6M7$442.7M8$580.2M8$615.7M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.26B9$2.07B10$2.07B11$1.91B12$1.31B13
Cash & equivalents$1.03B14$621.5M15$923.8M15$1.02B15$1.72B15
Diluted shares152.0M150.5M150.9M153.3M166.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$298.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.5
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$78.92

10 shares is a claim on $298.62 of net worth that earned you $28.5 last year, against $78.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 9%FY23 19%FY24 20%FY25 28%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$21.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$351M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007789-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000007789-26-000071 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007789-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007789-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007789-26-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007789-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007789-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007789-26-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007789-22-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007789-23-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000007789-24-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000007789-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000007789-26-000071 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000007789-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000007789-26-000071 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)