ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

ARWRdata completeness 88%23 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about -152% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$138.3M¹	$243.2M²	$240.7M³	$3.55M³	$829.4M³
Net income	−$140.8M⁴	−$176.1M⁵	−$205.3M⁶	−$599.5M⁶	−$1.63M⁶
Operating cash flow	$171.3M⁷	−$136.1M⁸	−$153.9M⁹	−$462.9M⁹	$179.6M⁹
Capital expenditure	$23.6M¹⁰	$52.8M¹¹	$176.7M¹²	$141.5M¹²	$22.7M¹²
Free cash flow (derived)	$147.7M⁷	−$188.9M⁸	−$330.6M⁹	−$604.3M⁹	$156.9M⁹
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$184.4M¹³	$108M¹⁴	$110.9M¹⁴	$102.7M¹⁴	$226.5M¹⁴
Diluted shares	103.7M	105.4M	106.8M	119.8M	133.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$34.84

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$0.12

Free cash flow it threw off

$11.73

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $34.84 of net worth that earned you −$0.12 and generated $11.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-152% avg · 5y

FY21 -50%FY22 -47%FY23 -93%FY24 -585%FY25 13%

It earned an average -152% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-040219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-049277 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000879407-25-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-040219 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-049277 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000879407-25-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-040219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-049277 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000879407-25-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-040219 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-049277 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000879407-25-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001564590-21-057888 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000879407-25-000029 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)