MeritValue

ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC.

ARWdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 29% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $177.52 and $645.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$34.5B1$37.1B2$33.1B3$27.9B3$30.9B3
Net income$1.11B4$1.43B5$903.5M6$392.1M6$571.3M6
Operating cash flow$419M7−$33.1M8$705.4M9$1.13B9$64M9
Capital expenditure$83.1M10$78.8M11$83.3M12$92.7M12$101.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$335.9M7−$111.9M8$622.2M9$1.04B9−$37.2M9
Total debt$2.63B13$3.77B14$3.81B15$3.12B16$3.09B16
Cash & equivalents$222.2M17$176.9M18$218.1M19$188.8M20$306.5M20
Diluted shares73.4M65.5M57.0M53.8M52.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,260.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$109.32
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$590.38

10 shares is a claim on $1,260.11 of net worth that earned you $109.32 and generated −$7.12 of cash last year, against $590.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 14%FY23 7%FY24 2%FY25 4%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−29% shares · 5y

Share count is down 29% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 17% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $177.52 and $645.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$645.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$622.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$329.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$622.2M
Earnings Power Value
$177.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$903.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$176.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $329.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$114.69
Base20.0%$329.48
Bull20.0%$329.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000781 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012765 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000781 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012765 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000781 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012765 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000781 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012765 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001859644-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000781 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012765 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001859644-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000781 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012765 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)