MeritValue

ARVINAS, INC.

ARVNdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ARVINAS, INC. earns about -40% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 42% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$46.7M1$131.4M2$78.5M3$263.4M3$262.6M3
Net income−$191M4−$282.5M5−$367.3M6−$198.9M6−$80.8M6
Operating cash flow$559.4M7−$273.5M8−$347.8M9−$259.3M9−$273.8M9
Capital expenditure$4.7M10$6.8M11$2.9M12$1.8M12$1.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$554.7M7−$280.3M8−$350.7M9−$261.1M9−$275.7M9
Total debt$2M13$2M14$2M15$1.6M16$1.2M16
Cash & equivalents$108.3M17$81.3M18$311.7M19$100.5M19$142.9M19
Diluted shares50.0M53.2M55.5M71.9M70.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$61.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$38.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.17

10 shares is a claim on $61.2 of net worth that earned you −$11.4 and generated −$38.89 of cash last year, against $0.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-40% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -41%FY23 -82%FY24 -34%FY25 -22%

It earned an average -40% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+42% shares · 5y

Share count is up 42% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-004262 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655759-25-000016 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011226 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655759-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655759-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011226 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655759-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655759-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011226 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655759-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655759-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011226 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655759-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655759-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001655759-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011226 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001655759-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001655759-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011226 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)