MeritValue

Array Technologies, Inc.

ARRYdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Array Technologies, Inc. earns about -18% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.05 and $15.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$853.3M1$1.64B2$1.58B3$915.8M3$1.28B3
Net income−$50.4M4$4.43M5$137.2M6−$240.4M6−$52.2M6
Operating cash flow−$263.2M7$141.5M8$232M9$154M9$101.8M9
Capital expenditure$3.36M10$10.6M11$17M12$7.31M12$22M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$266.5M7$130.9M8$215M9$146.7M9$79.8M9
Total debt$715.4M13$759M14$682.4M15$677.3M16$669M16
Cash & equivalents$367.7M17$133.9M18$249.1M19$363M20$244.4M20
Diluted shares130.0M149.8M152.0M151.8M152.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$13.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$43.86

10 shares is a claim on −$13.53 of net worth that earned you −$3.42 and generated $5.23 of cash last year, against $43.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-18% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 3%FY23 25%FY24 -101%FY25 -11%

It earned about -18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.05 and $15.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$146.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$146.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.77
Base5.0%$14.05
Bull10.0%$17.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820721-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820721-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820721-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820721-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820721-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820721-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820721-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820721-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820721-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820721-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820721-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820721-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820721-23-000079 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820721-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820721-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001820721-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820721-23-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820721-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820721-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001820721-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)