MeritValue

ARRAS MINERALS CORP.

ARRKFdata completeness 75%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ARRAS MINERALS CORP. earns about -85% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023
Revenue——
Net income$5.95M1−$5.72M2
Operating cash flow−$5.19M3−$5.24M3
Capital expenditure$43,7854$29,2114
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.23M3−$5.27M3
Total debt——
Cash & equivalents$424,1245$290,6845
Diluted shares52.6M68.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.83
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.77
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.82 of net worth that earned you −$0.83 and generated −$0.77 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-85% avg · 2y
FY22 -86%FY23 -84%

It earned an average -85% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 2y

Share count is up 30% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001079973-23-000253 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000310 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000310 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000310 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000310 (CashAndCashEquivalents)