MeritValue

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.

ARQTdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. earns about -122% on equity, but has diluted owners by 158% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$3.69M2$29.2M3$166.5M3$372.1M3
Net income−$206.4M4−$311.5M5−$262.1M6−$140M6−$16.1M6
Operating cash flow−$174.6M7−$257.7M8−$247.1M9−$112.2M9−$5.63M9
Capital expenditure$995,00010$333,00011$428,00012$143,00012$686,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$175.6M7−$258M8−$247.5M9−$112.3M9−$6.31M9
Total debt$144.7M13$395.5M14$403.6M15$214.4M16$217.9M16
Cash & equivalents$96.4M17$53.6M18$88.4M19$71.3M20$42.9M20
Diluted shares49.4M55.0M69.3M121.0M127.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.27
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.13

10 shares is a claim on $14.89 of net worth that earned you −$1.27 and generated −$0.5 of cash last year, against $17.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-122% avg · 5y
FY21 -69%FY22 -149%FY23 -296%FY24 -89%FY25 -9%

It earned an average -122% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+158% shares · 5y

Share count is up 158% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 51% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001787306-24-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001787306-25-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001787306-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001787306-24-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001787306-25-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001787306-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001787306-24-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001787306-25-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001787306-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001787306-24-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001787306-25-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001787306-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001787306-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001787306-24-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001787306-25-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001787306-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001787306-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001787306-24-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001787306-25-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001787306-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)