MeritValue

Arq, Inc.

ARQdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Arq, Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 125% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$100.3M1$103M2$99.2M3$109M4$120.3M4
Net income$60.4M5−$8.92M6−$12.2M7−$5.11M8−$52.6M8
Operating cash flow$26M9−$6.06M10−$16.7M11$10.5M12−$2.73M12
Capital expenditure$6.2M13$8.91M14$27.5M15$85.2M16$8.58M16
Free cash flow (derived)$19.8M9−$15M10−$44.2M11−$74.7M12−$11.3M12
Total debt$7.32M17$9.16M18$43.9M19$49.9M20$57.2M20
Cash & equivalents$78.8M21$66.4M22$45.4M23$13.5M24$6.57M24
Diluted shares18.5M18.5M29.1M36.1M41.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.77

10 shares is a claim on $40.45 of net worth that earned you −$12.67 and generated −$2.72 of cash last year, against $13.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 81%FY22 -8%FY23 -4%FY24 -2%FY25 -19%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+125% shares · 5y

Share count is up 125% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 682% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001515156-23-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001515156-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001515156-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001515156-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001515156-23-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001515156-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001515156-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001515156-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001515156-23-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001515156-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001515156-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001515156-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001515156-23-000024 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001515156-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001515156-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001515156-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001515156-22-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001515156-24-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001515156-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001515156-26-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001515156-23-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001515156-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001515156-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001515156-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)