MeritValue

Aramark

ARMKdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Aramark earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.18 and $62.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.1B1$13.7B2$16.1B3$17.4B3$18.5B3
Net income−$90.8M4$194.5M5$674.1M6$262.5M6$326.4M6
Operating cash flow$657.1M7$694.5M7$766.4M7$726.5M8$921M8
Capital expenditure$407.8M9$311.9M10$383.5M11$427.4M11$489.2M11
Free cash flow (derived)$249.3M7$382.6M7$382.9M7$299.1M8$431.8M8
Total debt$58.9M12$65M13$1.6B13——
Cash & equivalents$532.6M14$305.7M15$1.93B16$672.5M16$639.1M16
Diluted shares254.7M259.1M262.6M266.2M267.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$117.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $117.75 of net worth that earned you $12.21 and generated $16.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 13%FY23 24%FY24 11%FY25 13%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 2614% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.18 and $62.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.4%
  • fcfBase$382.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.4%
  • fcfBase$382.9M
Earnings Power Value
$10.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$262.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.85
Base15.4%$41.36
Bull20.0%$49.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001584509-23-000237 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001584509-24-000212 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001584509-25-000219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001584509-23-000237 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001584509-24-000212 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001584509-25-000219 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001584509-23-000237 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0001584509-25-000219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001584509-23-000237 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001584509-24-000212 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001584509-25-000219 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001584509-22-000236 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001584509-23-000237 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0001584509-22-000236 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001584509-24-000212 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001584509-25-000219 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)