ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK
ARMdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.33 and $57.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.7B1 | $2.68B2 | $3.23B3 | $4.01B3 | $4.92B3 |
| Net income | $549M4 | $524M5 | $306M6 | $792M6 | $904M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $458M7 | $739M8 | $1.09B9 | $397M9 | $1.52B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $34M10 | $64M11 | $92M12 | $219M12 | $545M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $424M7 | $675M8 | $998M9 | $178M9 | $979M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1B13 | $1.55B14 | $1.92B15 | $2.09B16 | $2.75B16 |
| Diluted shares | 1.03B | 1.03B | 1.04B | 1.06B | 1.07B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $77.58 of net worth that earned you $8.46 and generated $9.17 of cash last year.
It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.33 and $57.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$979M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$979M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$549M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $15.67 |
| Base | 20.0% | $32.46 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $32.46 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001973239-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001973239-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001973239-26-000097 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001973239-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001973239-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001973239-26-000097 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001973239-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001973239-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001973239-26-000097 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001973239-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001973239-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001973239-26-000097 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001973239-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001973239-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001973239-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001973239-26-000097 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)