Arlo Technologies, Inc.
ARLOdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Arlo Technologies, Inc. earns about -443% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.04 and $7.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $435.1M1 | $490.4M2 | $491.2M3 | $510.9M3 | $529.3M3 |
| Net income | −$56M4 | −$56.6M5 | −$22M6 | −$30.5M6 | $14.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$23.2M7 | −$46M8 | $38.3M9 | $51.3M9 | $78.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.27M10 | $2.01M11 | $2.85M11 | $2.69M11 | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$25.5M7 | −$48M8 | $35.5M9 | $48.6M9 | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $175.7M12 | $84M13 | $56.5M14 | $82M14 | $146.4M14 |
| Diluted shares | 82.7M | 87.2M | 92.8M | 98.6M | 110.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $11.61 of net worth that earned you $1.35 last year.
It earned about -443% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.04 and $7.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$35.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$35.5M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $5.93 |
| Base | 5.0% | $7.04 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $8.37 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736946-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736946-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736946-26-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736946-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736946-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736946-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736946-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736946-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736946-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736946-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736946-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001736946-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001736946-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001736946-26-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)