The thesis, from the filings
Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF earns about 18% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — |
| Net income | $1.89B1 | −$222.3M1 |
| Operating cash flow | — | — |
| Capital expenditure | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | — | — |
| Diluted shares | — | — |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
18% avg · 2y
FY24 43%FY25 -7%
It earned an average 18% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 2y
Not enough history to read capital allocation.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
not applicable
business development company / RIC — reported earnings are dominated by unrealised marks on private holdings, and a RIC must distribute ~90% of income so it cannot retain earnings to compound. Capitalising them would be meaningless, not merely imprecise. Price/NAV is the applicable lens.
not applicable
business development company / RIC — reported earnings are dominated by unrealised marks on private holdings, and a RIC must distribute ~90% of income so it cannot retain earnings to compound. Capitalising them would be meaningless, not merely imprecise. Price/NAV is the applicable lens.
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-021831 (NetIncomeLoss)