MeritValue

Aris Mining Corp

ARISdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Aris Mining Corp earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 90% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$400M1$447.7M2$510.6M3$927.7M3
Net income−$4.86M4$11.4M5$24.6M6$78.3M6
Operating cash flow$76.9M7$104.7M8$141.2M9$373M9
Capital expenditure$115M10$113.7M11$181.4M12$243.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$38.1M7−$9.02M8−$40.2M9$129.1M9
Total debt$378.4M13$377.8M14$516.2M15$519.5M15
Cash & equivalents$299.5M16$194.6M17$252.5M17$391.9M17
Diluted shares108.2M137.6M171.0M205.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$70.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.27

10 shares is a claim on $70.36 of net worth that earned you $3.81 and generated $6.28 of cash last year, against $25.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 4y
FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 7%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+90% shares · 4y

Share count is up 90% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.06
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009492 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012451 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001964504-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009492 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012451 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001964504-26-000012 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009492 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012451 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001964504-26-000012 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009492 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012451 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001964504-26-000012 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-009492 (Borrowings)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012451 (Borrowings)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001964504-26-000012 (Borrowings)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012451 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001964504-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalents)