MeritValue

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

ARIdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$284.5M1$303.6M2$344.6M3$303.7M3$271.6M3
Net income$223.5M4$265.2M5$58.1M6−$119.6M6$126.7M6
Operating cash flow$199.4M7$267.7M8$273.9M9$200.3M9$142.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$343.1M10$222M11$225.4M12$317.4M13$139.8M13
Diluted shares168.4M165.5M141.3M139.7M138.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$133.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.13
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $133.66 of net worth that earned you $9.13 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 25%FY23 26%FY24 4%FY25 17%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$126.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467760-24-000010 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017122 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044725 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467760-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017122 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044725 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467760-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017122 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044725 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467760-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467760-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017122 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044725 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)