MeritValue

ARDELYX, INC.

ARDXdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ARDELYX, INC. earns about -103% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 131% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.1M1$52.2M2$124.5M3$333.6M3$407.3M3
Net income−$158.2M4−$67.2M5−$66.1M6−$39.1M6−$61.6M6
Operating cash flow−$152.6M7−$70M8−$89.7M9−$44.8M9−$42.5M9
Capital expenditure$1.87M10$55,00011$344,00012$1.01M12$1.49M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$154.4M7−$70.1M8−$90.1M9−$45.8M9−$44M9
Total debt$32.3M13$26.7M14$49.8M15$150.9M16$202.8M16
Cash & equivalents$72.4M17$96.1M18$21.5M19$64.9M20$68M20
Diluted shares104.2M158.7M219.3M235.2M241.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.56
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.42

10 shares is a claim on $6.93 of net worth that earned you −$2.56 and generated −$1.82 of cash last year, against $8.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-103% avg · 5y
FY21 -286%FY22 -174%FY23 -25%FY24 -12%FY25 -16%

It earned an average -103% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+131% shares · 5y

Share count is up 131% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 529% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006393 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006653 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437402-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006393 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006653 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437402-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006393 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006653 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437402-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006393 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006653 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437402-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-004226 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006041 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006653 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437402-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006393 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006653 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437402-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)