MeritValue

Ardent Health, Inc.

ARDTdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ardent Health, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.13B1$5.41B2$5.97B2$6.32B2
Net income$188.9M3$53.9M4$210.3M4$135.8M4
Operating cash flow−$38.4M5$221.7M6$315M6$470.5M6
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt—$1.19B7$2.21B8$2.22B8
Cash & equivalents$456.1M9$437.6M10$556.8M11$709.6M11
Diluted shares126.1M126.1M132.7M141.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$91.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.6
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$156.61

10 shares is a claim on $91.05 of net worth that earned you $9.6 last year, against $156.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 4y
FY22 45%FY23 9%FY24 11%FY25 8%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 4y

Share count is up 12% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 87% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$11.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$162.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008727 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018174 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008727 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018174 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008727 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018174 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008727 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018174 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018174 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008727 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018174 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)